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The Other About-Face on Iran

by Shane Harris




In releasing a bombshell about Iran's nuclear program, intelligence director Mike McConnell reversed a vow of secrecy. But he probably had no choice.

"You will be disappointed," Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, told a gathering of journalists in Washington on November 13. U.S. spy agencies were putting the finishing touches on a National Intelligence Estimate about Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities, which included new leads that the agencies had been vetting since spring. But departing from recent practice, McConnell said, "I do not intend to release unclassified key judgments" of the NIE, those heavily edited yet potentially telling morsels of analysis that might ultimately show how close the United States is to a war with Iran.

"We have probably done a thousand of these" NIEs, he said. "We have done unclassified key judgments for maybe three. So we created an expectation that we do this, because we did it previously." And that was a bad idea, McConnell said, with some passion.

For starters, even the "sanitized" version of an NIE could compromise vital sources and methods, he said, because the target of the estimate is, of course, going to read the document. Second, "I don't want to have a situation where the young analysts" -- whom McConnell guards with particular devotion because he was once one of them -- "are writing something because they know it's going to be a public debate or political debate. They should be writing it to call it as it is."

McConnell, whom a longtime colleague describes as having "not a political or manipulative bone in his body," also stated he would "make every effort" to prosecute anyone who leaked the NIE. Then, he vowed (twice) to resign if the intelligence was "cherry-picked in an inappropriate way" by government officials.

Things changed dramatically in the three weeks after McConnell's public denunciation of leaks and declassification. On December 3, McConnell and his aides reversed that decision and released the unclassified key judgments of the NIE on Iran. Try as McConnell might to keep the lid on the new estimate, his lieutenants were influenced by the political realities of intelligence these days.

"They thought it would leak and be distorted, and they thought they'd get ahead of that," said one former senior intelligence official close to the deliberations. "They decided it was better to put out a clean set of key judgments." Vice President Cheney went so far as to say that officials expected to lose control of some classified material. "There was a general belief -- that we all shared -- that it was important to put it out, that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway," Cheney told The Politico on December 5. "Everything leaks."

The leak-prevention strategy was a stark departure from the guidelines that McConnell had set out, both in November and a month earlier, when he issued this official policy: "The possibility that the [key judgments] or other positions of an estimate will be leaked is not a sufficient reason for preparing unclassified [key judgments]." In a briefing with reporters after the NIE was released, a senior intelligence official acknowledged that declassification "obviously represents a departure from [McConnell's] guidance."

The banner headline of the key judgments -- "that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program" -- put the intelligence community precisely where McConnell didn't want it to be: in the middle of a ferocious political and policy debate in which sources and methods of the intelligence on Iran, as well as the analysis, are being openly discussed, exposed, debated, and, yes, cherry-picked to suit a range of agendas. Indeed, even though the NIE does not say that Iran poses no nuclear threat, the key judgments on areas besides the weapons program have had to compete with the dramatic top-line assessment.

Because the new estimate upends its predecessor, made in 2005, and has undercut any nuclear-related pretext for a U.S. bombing of Iran, the political and ideological dispositions of the analysts who wrote the NIE are, predictably, under scrutiny. Within days of the key judgments' release, former Bush administration officials and neoconservative icons mounted a full-scale attack on McConnell's lieutenants, some of whom had long careers in the State Department and have, the critics contend, historically underestimated Iran.

These critics characterized the NIE as the lieutenants' way of cutting off Cheney and the president on their presumed path to war with Iran -- a contention that wasn't refuted by senior intelligence officials' repeated assertions that Iran's decision to stop its program in 2003 and to keep it shuttered resulted directly from international pressures and sanctions. Indeed, intelligence officials have been careful not to assert that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was the key motivator for Iran's change of plans. Whether McConnell's aides meant to pre-empt the White House or not, the conclusion is undeniable: The intelligence community is at odds with President Bush's forceful rhetoric on Iran.

Since the NIE was released, McConnell has been notably absent from the public fracas. His deputy, Donald Kerr, a veteran nuclear weapons expert, has given the intelligence community's only two on-the-record statements about the estimate. McConnell was out of the country when the key judgments were released.

Around Washington, rumors persist that McConnell threatened to resign over the issue. It's not clear, however, whether he staked his tenure on the NIE being released or withheld, or whether he saw any cherry-picking by the White House, but the gossip is one more measure of just how political the release of this document has become. Observers point out that in the month preceding the NIE, Bush warned that Iran's nuclear ambitions could lead to "World War III," and Cheney, four days later, gave a bellicose speech reminiscent of the run-up to war with Iraq over its weapons programs. The White House already knew by then, at a minimum, that the intelligence community was vetting potentially groundbreaking intelligence on Iran that could change the NIE.

Perhaps under pressure to back up their bold new claims on Iran, senior officials have gone further, giving on-background press interviews in which they catalog the streams of intelligence that led the analysts to change their nuclear conclusions -- purloined laptop computers loaded with weapons diagrams; notebooks and intercepted phone calls from high-ranking officials; and, as reported by the Los Angeles Times this week, a clandestine operation called "Brain Drain," in which the CIA helped mid- and top-level Iranian nuclear experts flee the country.

Unless officials are trying to affect the Iranian government's actions through a massive disinformation campaign, it would seem that the intelligence community has set aside McConnell's concerns about sources and methods. "I'm shocked by the level of public discussion," said a former senior intelligence official who worked on Iranian issues for many years, adding, "I don't see much good that comes from releasing NIEs."

Kerr has said that the release "was coordinated in discussion with senior policy makers," but that the intelligence community "took responsibility for what portions ... were to be declassified." Officials weighed "the importance of the information to open discussions about our national security" against protecting sources and methods, he said, and "felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available."

Still, only a dramatic turn of events would have led McConnell to abandon his policy of not making NIEs public, several former officials who know him said. One former high-ranking official involved in clandestine operations said that in more than 30 years in the intelligence business, he had never seen a key judgment change so dramatically so fast -- indicating that the new intelligence that officials picked up amounted to a veritable "smoking gun."

"Keep in mind, this thing had been built up, which is somewhat unusual for an NIE," said another former senior official, who has also worked on Capitol Hill. The document was months behind schedule, widely anticipated, and focused on one of the top foreign-policy issues of the moment. "I think this was an extraordinary circumstance," the former official said.

Expressing concern over the public airing of sources, a Senate staffer said that the NIE "has certainly been sucked into a political debate," and that McConnell is clearly concerned about the effect that the fallout might have on analysts. "For that, we will have to wait and see," the aide said. "I still think that he simply had no choice. There was no way this would stay secret, and he didn't want to be accused of trying to bury it. I think he held his nose and let it go."

Many intelligence professionals concur. And in the NIE's release, they see signs not of an outright insurrection against the Bush administration but of a reassertion by the intelligence community of its ability to influence policy -- public or otherwise. McConnell's team is hardly backing down in the face of the neocon onslaught. Last Saturday, Kerr shot back at the NIE's critics in an unusual and terse public statement. Labeled "In response to those questioning the analytic work and integrity of the United States intelligence community," Kerr's statement said that the agencies' "task ... is to produce objective, ground-truth analysis. We feel confident in our analytic tradecraft and resulting analysis in this estimate."

So there.

Published in
National Journal.

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Telecoms as Trojan Horses

by Shane Harris




The debate in Congress about whether to allow Americans to sue companies that participated in the National Security Agency's warrantless surveillance activities has little to do with punishing Big Telecom for its role in domestic spying. Rather, keeping alive an estimated 38 pending civil suits against AT&T, Verizon, and other companies has become congressional Democrats' best chance to hold the White House accountable for the controversial NSA program. The lawsuits also offer the hope of an official ruling on whether the program was ever legal, something that Congress has been unable to determine on its own.

House and Senate lawmakers recently proposed three different bills to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, known as FISA. The proposals set new rules on how the intelligence agencies monitor phone calls, e-mails, and other electronic communications, including those of U.S. citizens. Each of the bills tackles the issue of granting immunity to communications companies that participated in classified programs that were authorized by the president after the 9/11 attacks but were not overseen by a court until this year. The White House has threatened to veto any law that doesn't protect those companies, and granting them immunity would effectively end the lawsuits against them.

The plaintiffs, who are mostly private citizens and civil-liberties activists, have directed much ire and public scorn at the telecom companies for going along with the secret intelligence-gathering, but Democrats in Congress think the real target of litigation ought to be the Bush administration. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who has led the most aggressive inquiries into the NSA's warrantless activities, called the suits "perhaps the only avenue that exists for an outside review of the government's program, and an honest assessment of its legal arguments."

Even the most strident opponents of immunity see the lawsuits as a means to a political end. Last month, amid Judiciary Committee negotiations over immunity, Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., declared that shutting down the suits "would likely prevent courts from ruling on the president's illegal warrantless wiretapping program." He emphasized, "This program was one of the worst abuses of executive power in our history, and the courts should be able to rule on it once and for all."

Most Senate Republicans support unconditional immunity -- and even the majority of Democrats are hardly on the opposite side of the issue. Indeed, many Democrats have recently expressed no small amount of sympathy for the companies, which they think acted in good faith, believing that they were responding to urgent, and legal, requests from the president to help prevent another act of terrorism. Civil damages against the companies could conceivably reach into the tens of billions of dollars.

Democratic senators understand that private-sector assistance is an indispensable part of intelligence-gathering, and they don't want to see the telecoms put out of business because of their role in it. But they're also not prepared to let the telecoms off the hook completely.

As a Judiciary Committee staffer told National Journal, Leahy "doesn't support full, retroactive immunity but also doesn't want to see these companies bankrupted due to the administration's actions."

Echoing her colleagues on the Judiciary and Select Intelligence committees, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., has said that the telecommunications companies shouldn't be "held hostage to costly litigation in what is essentially a complaint about administration activities." The chairman of the Intelligence panel, Sen. Jay Rockefeller IV, D-W.Va., has noted, "The assistance of companies is invaluable in carrying out programs that provide for our national security and protect American lives. It is important that this assistance continue and not be extinguished under a deluge of lawsuits."

Thus, immunity has come down to a matter of degree. Last month, the House passed a FISA bill without corporate protections, but House lawmakers have signaled that they are open to compromise with the Senate's version, if the latter chamber can come to some consensus that doesn't allow blanket immunity. Senators are haggling over whether something less than immunity -- "accountability" for the companies, some have called it -- would suffice, offering a way to shield them from potentially devastating money damages and yet still expose the administration's culpability in court.

That the immunity question has become the flash point in the FISA debate took many of the key players by surprise. Leahy said last month that no one thought that the fight over immunity "would carry the day" when it came time to finalizing a FISA renewal.

Lawmakers have been trying to craft some long-term changes to FISA because the Protect America Act that allows the NSA surveillance activities to continue, with judicial oversight, expires in February. When Congress passed the stop-gap law last summer, many observers thought that some lawmakers were keeping immunity as a bargaining chip, a way to pressure the administration to hand over more information about the surveillance activities.

In late October, signs of a quid pro quo emerged when the White House gave a batch of documents to the Senate Intelligence Committee, after members "showed a willingness" to include telecom immunity in their FISA bill, according to White House spokeswoman Dana Perino. "Because they were willing to do that, we were willing to show them some of the documents that they asked to see." The documents included the presidential authorizations for the NSA activities, which were issued every 45 days, as well as legal opinions from the Justice Department approving those authorizations.

A Senate aide told National Journal that Intelligence Committee members were not prepared to include immunity in their bill without some White House movement on the documents front, but disputed the characterization that the senators had offered immunity in exchange. In fact, the staffer said, months earlier the committee had reviewed correspondence between the administration and the telecom companies in which the government asked the carriers to help gather intelligence that could prevent further terrorist attacks. Based on that correspondence, senators concluded that the telecoms had acted in good faith because executives believed that their actions were legal and had the president's blessing.

That conclusion has formed the basis of most committee members' thinking on the immunity question. "There are those who think the companies were clearly in the wrong and should be punished, but very few senators fall into this group," the aide said.

In October, the Intelligence Committee approved a bill that included immunity, and then waited for the Judiciary Committee to take up the measure, knowing that it might finesse the provision. The "extraordinary nature" of the period following the 9/11 attacks, coupled with the administration's assurances that new intelligence activities were designed to "detect and prevent the next terrorist attack," convinced Intelligence panelists that protection from prosecution was warranted, the committee wrote in a report accompanying its bill.

"This immunity provision is not the broad and vague immunity sought by the administration," Rockefeller wrote in additional comments in the report. It "does not provide retrospective immunity for government officials for their actions or to companies outside the specified timeframe. Nor does the bill extend to criminal proceedings." The panel's provision covers only activities undertaken after 9/11 and before January 17, 2007, when the administration placed the NSA surveillance program under judicial review.

"The committee did not endorse the immunity provision lightly," Rockefeller continued. "I believe it is the Bush administration, not the companies, who must be accountable for the mishandling of the warrantless surveillance program."

The Judiciary Committee had its crack at a revised FISA bill last month. It adopted a version with no immunity provision, but not for lack of trying. Committee members were prepared to consider some kind of language to protect the companies, but members did not reach a compromise before time expired on its markup, and Leahy chose to let the issue be settled on the Senate floor.

Both during and before the negotiations, committee members had suggested capping the amount of damages that could be levied against the companies or requiring the government to pay those damages. Just this week, the Judiciary Committee took up a proposal by Arlen Specter, R-Pa., the committee's ranking member, to substitute the government for the companies as the defendant in the civil cases.

At a December 1 press conference, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said that several remedies remain under consideration, including some kind of hybrid, in which "there would still be immunity, but the government would be responsible for whatever damages, if any, were offered." Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., signaled Republicans' opposition to that approach -- "Taxpayers shouldn't have to foot the bill," he said -- which may dampen hopes for a compromise. But rather than being inflexible, Democrats seem as willing to negotiate over immunity as they've ever been in the two years since the NSA program was publicly exposed.

Published in National Journal

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Shane Harris
Intelligence and Homeland Security Correspondent, National Journal

Contact: E-mail

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